The state of California and seven others have pledged to put 3.3 million plug-in hybrids, electric, and fuel-cell vehicles on their collective roads by 2025.
In 12 years, we'll be running five-way comparison tests between hydrogen family sedans, at least three quarters of our 10Best list will run off a plug, and you'll see millions of zero-emission vehicles on the road. We could have added those predictions to the latest memorandum between eight state governors, who last week promised 3.3 million plug-in hybrid, electric, and fuel-cell vehicles on their collective roads by 2025, except we're not paid to draft pretty sound bites.
The eight states—California, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Vermont—say they will reach 3.3 million such cars at the very least. They'll buy more zero-emission models for government fleets, update building codes to include charging stations, and standardize graphics for related road signs. They'll partner with automakers and utilities, aim for smart electrical grids, and try to toss out more cash incentives for buyers. Within six months, they'll have a concrete "plan of action."
There is some meaning behind the year 2025. Earlier this year, the California Air Resources Board (CARB), along with the seven other states following its emission laws, ruled that automakers must allocate 15 percent of their California sales to zero-emission vehicles by 2025. Unlike non-binding memorandums often forgotten after their signers leave office, CARB has genuine power to regulate what an automaker can sell, and can even bar them from selling their products in California if they don't comply in good faith. But "sell" is the key word here, and that's what has every manufacturer worried.
At more than 67,000 sales through September, the plug-in market is moving at twice the rate it did in 2012. An impressive array of new models arrived in 2013, bringing the total number of plug-in hybrid and electric models currently on sale or lease to the general public up to 15—and spurring dramatic price cuts on nearly every existing model in the segment along the way. By 2015, another 14 zero-emission models should be available, including the Tesla Model X, the Audi A3 e-tron, and Toyota's new hydrogen sedan. From minicars to SUVs, buyers will have an incredibly diverse choice of vehicles to choose from in nearly every price category.
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But while CARB is correct that "nearly every major automaker" will have zero-emission vehicles on sale by 2015, public demand is still too low for these cars to multiply like rabbits. It's why Mercedes made the B-class F-Cell available for lease only as part of a tiny pilot program in California, why Chrysler and Scion restrict their plug-in Ram PHEV and Scion iQ EV to fleets, and why even Toyota and Honda refuse to make their all-electric cars available to all 50 states. With the total plug-in segment at barely 0.6 percent of all U.S. car sales, most automakers are building low volumes of zero-emission vehicles simply to comply with CARB. Others, such as Nissan and Ford, are trying large-scale manufacturing but still can't record a profit.
At this point, other government proclamations—such as President Obama's pledge for 1 million electric vehicles and plug-in hyrbids on the road by 2015, or the Department of Energy's call to have 300-mile EVs cost just $35,000 by 2022—evaporate like a fuel-cell car's exhaust. Such specifics ignore the untapped potential in gasoline and diesel efficiency, or that most Americans are crushed by far more critical purchases than cars, such as a college education, that will become prohibitively expensive by 2025. Infrastructure advances and R&D breakthroughs will bring zero-emission vehicles up the charts, but until we see clear market trends from this new segment, we'd rather our leaders make shorter-term promises they can actually keep.
from Car and Driver Blog http://blog.caranddriver.com
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