Thursday, October 25, 2012

Electric Vehicles Not Ready for Primetime, Industry Execs Tell Us

2012 Toyota RAV4 EV

"Carnage." That's how Delphi's CEO Rodney O'Neal describes consumers' reactions to electric vehicles on the market. Speaking on an industry panel in New York this week, O'Neal joined several other industry leaders in expressing pessimism about electric vehicles and battery technology. "It's not ready for primetime," Borg Warner's CEO Tim Manganello added. Citing short ranges, long recharge times, retail prices, and battery costs, O'Neal and Manganello said that right now, the business case doesn't make sense for car companies or shoppers.

These aren't stunning expositions. In fact, odds are good you've thought about them, too. Automakers have quietly, and without much comment, rolled back production or plans for their EVs. Battery supplier A123 just went bankrupt and sold out to another company. But the news is devastating to hear from CEOs of two of the largest suppliers in the business.

Nissan Leaf traveling backwards

Executives from Daimler and Volkswagen, also on the panel, were only slightly more cautious. Jonathan Browning, who runs VW's American operations, said customer acceptance has been and will continue to be slow. He explained that "EVs have a role," but a small one: Browning expects EVs to account for less than three percent of global new vehicles sales by 2018.

Martin Jäger, Daimler's head of external affairs and public policy, was similarly cautious as Browning, saying that governments must give additional support for development and sales of EVs if they're going to be successful. The U.S. federal government gives a $7500 tax credit to buyers of EVs, and some states offer additional incentives.



Even from this small sample, one can't help but think many car companies—perhaps Nissan excepted—are building full EVs not because they want to, but because they think they have to. Whether trying to placate government regulators, environmental groups, or just morning news hosts, it seems some external needs have prompted companies to build expensive, sometimes loss-making, cars for which there aren't many buyers.

We assume that like all electronic technology, from cell phones to computers, EV motors and battery packs will get smaller, more powerful, more durable, and cheaper over time. Delphi's O'Neal, however, isn't buying it. "I'm not as hopeful battery technology will get better."

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from Car and Driver Blog http://blog.caranddriver.com




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