Europe In May 2013: Ford OK, GM Definitely Not OK

Hopes of a bottoming of the European have been frustrated, and the small April uptick turned out as a flash in the pan. We warned in April not to read too much into car data, caused by a curious confluence of calendars. We predicted two weeks ago that the EU market will continue on its downward trajectory. And so it does. The new car market throughout the EU was down 5.9 percent in May, the auto manufacturer association ACEA says.  For the year, the market is down 6.8 percent. Among the volume markets, the UK (+11 percent) is the only one that is not down. Across the Channel, France is down 10.4 percent. New Car Sales Europe May 2013 18/6/13 May January – May     %Share Units Units % Chg     %Share Units Units % Chg '13 '12 '13 '12 13/12 '13 '12 '13 '12 13/12 ALL BRANDS 1,042,742 1,107,942 -5.9 5,070,840 5,443,226 -6.8 VW Group 25.4 24.6 264,768 272,375 -2.8 24.9 24.0 1,261,959 1,304,930 -3.3 VOLKSWAGEN 12.7 12.9 132,255 142,623 -7.3 12.6 12.7 636,665 690,044 -7.7 AUDI 5.9 5.7 61,368 63,364 -3.2 5.7 5.4 288,467 295,428 -2.4 SEAT 2.5 2.1 25,559 22,770 +12.2 2.4 2.0 120,706 109,794 +9.9 SKODA 4.0 3.9 41,205 43,351 -5.0 3.9 3.8 196,512 208,551 -5.8 Others (1) 0.4 0.0 4,381 267 +1540.8 0.4 0.0 19,609 1,113 +1661.8 PSA Group 11.0 12.0 115,191 132,670 -13.2 11.2 12.1 569,379 660,987 -13.9 PEUGEOT 6.1 6.5 64,034 72,191 -11.3 6.2 6.5 312,806 354,190 -11.7 CITROEN 4.9 5.5 51,157 60,479 -15.4 5.1 5.6 256,573 306,797 -16.4 RENAULT Grp 8.2 8.5 85,081 94,535 -10.0 8.5 8.4 431,341 458,504 -5.9 RENAULT 5.8 6.6 60,429 73,274 -17.5 6.3 6.7 318,433 362,610 -12.2 DACIA 2.4 1.9 24,652 21,261 +15.9 2.2 1.8 112,908 95,894 +17.7 GM Group 8.4 9.0 87,943 99,183 -11.3 8.0 8.3 403,784 453,822 -11.0 OPEL/VAUXHALL 7.2 7.4 74,563 81,679 -8.7 6.8 6.8 346,108 369,590 -6.4 CHEVROLET 1.3 1.6 13,373 17,482 -23.5 1.1 1.5 57,584 84,069 -31.5 GM (US) 0.0 0.0 7 22 -68.2 0.0 0.0 92 163 -43.6 FORD 8.0 7.5 82,953 83,185 -0.3 7.5 8.0 378,432 433,926 -12.8 FIAT Group 6.9 7.3 72,227 80,930 -10.8 6.6 6.8 333,058 368,039 -9.5 FIAT 5.4 5.4 56,155 59,763 -6.0 5.1 4.9 259,109 265,264 -2.3 LANCIA/CHRYS 0.7 0.9 7,568 9,668 -21.7 0.7 0.8 34,264 45,898 -25.3 ALFA ROMEO 0.6 0.8 6,647 8,792 -24.4 0.6 0.8 29,297 43,616 -32.8 JEEP 0.1 0.2 1,463 2,380 -38.5 0.2 0.2 8,697 11,352 -23.4 Others (2) 0.0 0.0 394 327 +20.5 0.0 0.0 1,691 1,909 -11.4 BMW Group 6.3 6.4 65,392 70,455 -7.2 6.3 6.0 316,998 325,579 -2.6 BMW 5.0 5.1 52,204 56,832 -8.1 5.1 4.8 256,686 261,785 -1.9 MINI 1.3 1.2 13,188 13,623 -3.2 1.2 1.2 60,312 63,794 -5.5 DAIMLER 5.6 5.2 58,360 57,977 +0.7 5.5 5.0 281,182 274,826 +2.3 MERCEDES 5.0 4.6 52,533 51,103 +2.8 5.0 4.5 251,632 242,580 +3.7 SMART 0.6 0.6 5,827 6,874 -15.2 0.6 0.6 29,550 32,246 -8.4 TOYOTA Grp 4.0 3.9 41,413 43,566 -4.9 4.2 4.4 210,579 239,555 -12.1 TOYOTA 3.8 3.7 39,865 41,278 -3.4 4.0 4.2 202,441 227,093 -10.9 LEXUS 0.1 0.2 1,548 2,288 -32.3 0.2 0.2 8,138 12,462 -34.7 NISSAN 3.2 2.9 33,747 31,884 +5.8 3.6 3.5 181,353 188,161 -3.6 HYUNDAI 3.3 3.1 34,904 34,251 +1.9 3.5 3.3 176,157 179,557 -1.9 KIA 2.8 2.8 29,449 30,556 -3.6 2.8 2.5 139,786 136,573 +2.4 VOLVO CAR 1.7 1.6 17,427 18,050 -3.5 1.7 1.8 84,924 95,402 -11.0 JLR 1.0 0.8 10,325 9,402 +9.8 1.2 1.0 61,141 54,049 +13.1 LAND ROVER 0.8 0.7 8,183 7,512 +8.9 1.0 0.8 49,075 43,839 +11.9 JAGUAR 0.2 0.2 2,142 1,890 +13.3 0.2 0.2 12,066 10,210 +18.2 HONDA 1.0 1.0 10,401 10,777 -3.5 1.2 1.0 61,006 55,165 +10.6 SUZUKI 1.2 1.2 12,095 13,189 -8.3 1.2 1.2 60,129 67,354 -10.7 MAZDA 1.0 0.7 10,322 7,950 +29.8 1.1 1.0 54,991 53,590 +2.6 MITSUBISHI 0.5 0.6 5,577 6,385 -12.7 0.6 0.6 28,428 33,722 -15.7 OTHER** 0.5 1.0 5,167 10,622 -51.4 0.7 1.1 36,213 59,485 -39.1 Source: ACEA Among the volume makers Daimler (+0.7 percent) and Ford (-0.3 percent) look the best. The Ford data give rise to the hope that the Blue Oval can stem the European hemorrhage earlier than others. Bloomberg says that " Ford  is counting on new models such as the EcoSport compact sport-utility vehicle to help reduce reliance on low-margin sales to rental-car companies in Europe to stem losses in the region."  Ford definitely has more reason for optimism than GM. The GM Group shows no sign of a turn-around, actually, its downward spiral is getting slightly steeper. Down 11 percent for the year, the GM Group was down 11.3 percent in May. RenCen's big hope, the Chevroletification of Europe as a counterweight to moribund Opel, fizzles fast. Chevrolet sales were down 23.5 percent in Europe, while Opel lost 8.7 percent. GM sold a grand total of 7 (seven) cars imported from America. Any hopes of Cadillac (not even on the list) creating trouble for European premium makers are seen as a symptom of a deranged mind in Europe. GM partner PSA  was down 13.2 percent in May. Europe's largest maker Volkswagen looks relatively OK and should do better as its bread & butter Golf reaches wider distribution. Seat's comeback is interesting. Finally keep an eye on the low-cost brand Dacia, Renault's answer to European austerity programs. from The Truth About Cars http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com

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