March 2012 Sales: What the Headlines Don’t Tell You

A February and March packed with auto shows and new-car reveals kept us from our usual posting schedule. We're back now, and have rolled February trends into the analysis below. The collective mainstream reporting on auto sales during the past eight weeks could have been written by the automakers themselves: All-time sales records have been broken! But this apparent explosive growth is largely voodoo accounting. For the last four years, the American car market has been crippled by a pernicious economic crisis, a shortage of credit for financing and leasing, formal bankruptcies for two overripe automakers, and multiple natural disasters in Asia. Sales collapsed as people held onto older vehicles and model introductions were delayed. With credit now available, new mainstream models hitting the market, and production capacity recovered, how could we see anything other than large sales gains today? Below, we cut a slice of Porsche's profit cake, look at the outgoing generation of Nissan Altima, and take a deeper look at the sales reports at VW and Ford. Who Wants to be a Billionaire? Porsche sales in March 2012: 2460 Percentage of those sales accounted for by the Cayenne: 51 Percentage of those sales accounted for by the Panamera: 27 Date on which Porsche confirmed Macan compact SUV: February 16, 2012 Number of results for the Google search string "Porsche purists cried foul": 678 Percentage of Volkswagen voting stock owned by the Porsche family: 50.73 Minimum percentage of Porsche owned by the Piëch and Porsche families: 90 What the numbers reveal: The recent death of Ferdinand A. Porsche, who designed the 911 in the 1960s, led to a trillion obituaries that underscore just how much the 911 is the Porsche brand. But the Cayenne and Panamera bring in the money. The upcoming Macan compact crossover will print even more cash. And where does that money go? Most of the profit ends up in the bank accounts of the Piëch and Porsche families, who made news this month for—inexplicably—still struggling to merge two businesses they control. Ultimate Altima Number of fourth-generation Altimas sold in March 2012: 41,050 Date on which Nissan unveiled the all-new, fifth-generation Altima: April 4, 2012 Average amount below sticker for which the Altima sold in March 2012, according to TrueCar.com: $2521 Average amount below sticker for which the Toyota Camry sold in March 2012, according to TrueCar.com: $807 Rank of the outgoing Altima in March 2012 car sales: 2 Rank of the Camry in March 2012 car sales: 1 Minimum number of fourth-generation Nissan Altimas sold in the U.S. since its introduction at the end of 2006: 1.35 million Number of Altimas this represents for every man, woman, and child in Dallas, Texas: 1.125 What the numbers reveal: Don't listen to Nissan's spin about how the current Altima is still selling up a storm at the end of its life cycle. It's a good car, but it's also on fire sale: The company is clearing out inventory before the next-gen 2013 model, which just debuted, arrives at dealers. Passing Because of Passat Percent by which Volkswagen sales increased from March 2011 to March 2012: 35 Volkswagen sales in March 2012: 36,588 Percent by which Volkswagen sales changed from March 2011 to March 2012 if the new Passat is excluded: -2.3 What the numbers reveal: The Passat is the right product for VW in the U.S., and we're happy to say that it's actually a damn good car. But its launch has also masked the leveling-off of Volkswagen's other sales here. The Jetta is now almost two years old, and its 15,000 sales in March is a strong number, but not at the front of its class. Volkswagen will make running changes to keep the Jetta fresh, and the upcoming Beetle cabrio will add a bit of volume. But if this company seriously wants to chase the big players, a more mainstream Tiguan and a larger seven-passenger crossover can't come soon enough. Focus on Fleets Ford Focus sales in March 2012: 28,293 Percent by which this is higher than Focus sales during March 2011: 65 Overall portion of Ford vehicles sold to fleets in February 2012: 32 Percentage of Ford Focuses sold to fleets during 2011: 45 Date on which a Ford exec said fleet sales are "good for our business": March 27, 2012 What the numbers reveal: After every armchair CEO blamed overdependence on fleet sales for contributing to the bankruptcies of GM and Chrysler in 2009, Ford is brazenly back to old habits. Fleet sales are opiates for automakers, and with every transgression there's a story. This time, Ford is characterizing these as "the good kind" of fleet sales, which means more Focuses are going to utility companies and traveling salespeople and fewer to rental companies. Ford's right, but only in relative terms. from Car and Driver Blog http://blog.caranddriver.com

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