The national average gas price eclipsed $3.90 last week, leaving March auto sales awash in high-mpg choices. With two new variants hitting dealerships, the Toyota Prius saw its best sales month in nearly 12 years of U.S. sales. Half of the 10 best-sellers offer a hybrid version, and two of the non-hybrids have versions with EPA highway ratings of 40 mpg or better. Fuel prices are ramping up faster than their usual summer gains, and there's a 20% chance that prices could spike to nearly $6 a gallon, industry research firm IHS says. "Only 3 percent of consumer budgets go to gasoline. That's tiny," IHS chief economist Nariman Behravesh told attendees at a conference sponsored by IHS and the National Automobile Dealers Association on the eve of the 2012 New York International Auto Show. "But here's the psychological part of it: They're seeing the prices every time they go to the pump." What Is Causing the Boost? In the near term, two factors are pushing gas prices higher. The first is supply disruptions and limited capacity. "There's not a lot of spare capacity worldwide for a variety of reasons," Behravesh said, noting supply disruptions in Yemen, Sudan and Syria are partly to blame for the price of oil. Then there's what Behravesh called the "Iran risk premium," or a bump in gas prices from months-long fears of war with Iran. We won't go too much into the weeds, but sanctions over the country's nuclear program could induce the country to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane for oil. The situation remains tenuous, and IHS says "accidental" escalations, not a military strike, could lead Iran to shut Hormuz. Such fears have already driven oil up $20 to $30 per barrel. Brent crude oil — which largely determines what drivers pay at the pump, according to IHS analysis director Mike Wall — traded at $125 a barrel on Tuesday. "There are two narrow shipping channels there — it's fairly easy to mine," Behravesh said. "NATO forces, especially American forces, would clear [the strait], but you would have a period of a few weeks where oil could not come out of the Persian Gulf." Twenty percent of the world's oil comes from that region. If this happened in January 2013, IHS projects oil prices would spike to $240 a barrel then retreat to $160 by spring and return to around $120 by summer. What does that mean for drivers? Expect pump prices to spike to "the upper $5s," Wall said. Consumers would respond with a sudden, if short-lived, shift to hybrids and plug-in vehicles. The latter group was largely unavailable during gas-price spikes in 2008. Would Nissan, GM and other plug-in automakers be able to fill the demand? GM has more Chevrolet Volts on hand than it knows what to do with, after all. But Wall suspects not. "I don't think there is really enough [manufacturing] capacity to accommodate" an Iran-fueled spike in demand, he said. Nissan might fare better. The automaker is shifting production of its Leaf electric vehicle to the U.S. — a move that could allow Nissan to meet the demand, fellow analyst Tracy Handler noted. Either way, IHS says a spike to $200 or more per barrel could do serious damage to an auto industry just beginning to enjoy better times. In the long term, Behravesh sees vast quantities of oil from unconventional sources: shale, tar sands and more. "So all of a sudden the prospects for energy supply, for energy prices, in the medium to long term are looking quite good," he said. No Big Shift Yet The Middle East may push gas prices higher, but consumers are sticking to the types of cars they own. Even as gas neared $4 a gallon, Detroit's full-size pickups combined to improve 13.4% in March sales. Even the age-old Chevrolet Avalanche, which the EPA rates at just 17 mpg combined, flew 25.9%. And the Dodge Challenger, whose city EPA mileage is in the teens, saw its best sales month yet. "There is still a market for that car, even with $4-a-gallon gasoline," an upbeat Reid Bigland, who oversees Chrysler's U.S. sales, told conference attendees. Indeed, a study last month by CNW Automotive Research showed that 82 percent of consumers still trade their cars for the same segment of vehicle, despite more than four-fifths of them listing fuel economy among the top three reasons they traded in their cars. "Downsizing is now a function of practicality or driving needs rather than an attempt to boost fuel economy," CNW said in a statement. "In fact, of all the respondents, only 7% of large-car owners traded for a smaller model — barely more than in 2007." Gas prices would have to reach $4.75 a gallon for consumers to make radical shifts, CNW predicts. An Iran crisis could bring that overnight — but short of it, today's choices and gas prices may not require a change in the type of car you own. "People look at an 11-year-old car," said Ford marketing chief Jim Farley, referencing the median age of today's cars reaching a record 10.8 years. "Remember, most of those vehicles are V-6s," Farley said. "It's totally conceivable now that they can get the same class of vehicle for 10 miles per gallon better." from KickingTires http://blogs.cars.com/kickingtires/ | |||
| |||
| |||
|
Wednesday, April 4, 2012
How Gas Could Hit $6 a Gallon
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Archive
-
▼
2012
(7297)
-
▼
April
(760)
- Ford Focus ST Priced At $23,700
- 2013 Ford F-150 Spy Photos: A Mild Cosmetic Update...
- 41-mpg Dodge Dart Aero: Same Great Taste, Less Fil...
- Volkswagen Golf/Jetta CC Not Destined for U.S.
- 2012 Audi A8L W12 Instrumented Test: 0 to 60 mph i...
- Name That Shifter, No. 74
- This Is The Analysis Of The Video That Jalopnik Al...
- 2013 Ford Focus ST Wagon Spied; Still Not Coming Here
- 2013 Acura ILX vs. 2012 Honda Civic: Which Would Y...
- VW Polo R Line Adds Show Without the Go
- 2012 Mitsubishi i-MiEV: Car Seat Check
- Toyota RAV4 EV to Debut May 7
- 2013 Ford Shelby GT500 Crowned World's Most Powerf...
- Daily News Briefs: April 30, 2012
- Next-Gen Toyota Prius Targeted For Stateside Produ...
- There’s a “Huracan” Coming To Your “Urus”
- Cars.com Buzz Index: April 2012
- Morgan 3 Wheeler Being Offered To Eccentric Americ...
- This Weekend’s World Challenge Event Shows What’s ...
- Piston Slap: Crystal Ballin’ the Bling-Free Altima!
- Dodge Dart Gets “Aero” Package To Break 40 MPG
- Junkyard Find: 1990 Ford Escort Pony
- BMW May Takeover Nedcar Plant
- Should the EPA Have Changed the BMW 328's Mileage?
- Trackday Diaries: Two wheels good, four wheels pro...
- At Forbes, Gordon Chang Lacks Adult Supervision
- Gleanings Of The 2010 Beijing Auto Show: Breasts D...
- Review: BMW 335i 6MT Sport Line
- GM And Isuzu Want To Rekindle Old Tie-Up
- What Went Wrong For Peugeot In India?
- GM and Isuzu In Bed Again?
- Hammer Time Rewind: The Seven Deadly Sins
- Most-Read Car Reviews of the Week
- Junkyard Find: Toasty 1965 BMW 700
- Car Collector’s Corner: 1962 Mercury Monterey 4 Do...
- Ed And BS Meet For Cars And Coffee
- Kicking Around The Fisker Football
- This Week's Most-Read Stories
- Mitusbishi Mirage: Yes For Canada, Maybe For America
- Most-Watched Video Reviews of the Week
- Best Selling Cars Around The Globe: Discover Some ...
- 2013 Dodge Dart First Drive: Fiat and Chrysler’s F...
- Cars.com Reviews the 2013 Dodge Dart
- Dodge Dart Aero to Get at Least 41 MPG Highway
- Italian Masterpieces on Display at L.A.’s Petersen...
- Why Torontonians Love The Smart Fortwo
- 2013 Scion FR-S Video
- Capsule Review: Aston Martin V8 Vantage
- Ferrari Plans Hybrid Powertrain
- Biden: “Osama bin Laden Is Dead And General Motors...
- Mercedes Opens First AMG-Only Dealership in Beijing
- Mazda Gives Us Another 1,000 Chances To Buy A Rota...
- Daily News Briefs: April 27, 2012
- Massage-Off: Jag, Mercedes, and Audi Seat Massager...
- Setting Music To Marques
- This Aggression Will Not Stand, Man: Portland Decl...
- Junkyard Find: 1992 Geo Prizm
- For Honda, Next Accord Must be a Hit
- Junkyard Find: 1992 Geo Prizm
- Which Cars Fit Three Car Seats?
- Gleanings Of The 2012 Beijing Auto Show: Seat Intr...
- Confirmed: 2013 Ford Mustang Shelby GT500 Rated at...
- Gleanings Of The 2012 Beijing Auto Show: Car Blogg...
- Go-To Car Music Keep Families in Harmony
- Gleanings Of The 2012 Beijing Auto Show: Toyota Op...
- Coda Withdraws DOE Loan Request Worth $334 Million
- 2012 Audi A1 Sportback First Drive: Two More Doors...
- Lamborghini’s Latest Trademark Application: “Huracán”
- 2013 Shelby GT500; 662 Horsepower, 200 MPH. WHY???
- China Gets Its Dual Clutches From The Borg
- The Acura NSX Concept Gets Painted Proper Sports-C...
- Gleanings Of The 2012 Beijing Auto Show: Victimize...
- Aston Martin Will End Current DBS Production with ...
- What's the Most Affordable Compact Crossover?
- MG’s Icon Concept Unveiled in China [Beijing Auto ...
- 2013 Toyota Land Cruiser: Car Seat Check
- Vellum Venom Vignette: 1991 Toyota Camry (emblem)
- 2013 Aston Martin DBS Spied: 550 hp and One-77 Looks
- Toyota Prices Limited-Edition Tacoma TRD T/X Baja ...
- Is Status For The Smart Or Stupid?
- 2012 Ford Focus Electric to Serve as NASCAR’s Firs...
- Daily News Briefs: April 26, 2012
- 2013 Audi Q5: First Look
- BRB Driving Police Cars
- Time Machine Dilemma: It’s 1973 and You Have Enoug...
- Chevrolet Orlando Finally Becomes Top Small Miniva...
- 2012 Buick Regal GS Automatic Tested: That’s Right...
- Automated-Vehicle Cheat Codes: How to Get the Most...
- Cars.com's 2012 Mock Draft: Top Car Prospects
- Junkyard Find: 1981 Toyota Corolla Liftback Coupe
- Cars.com Reviews the 2012 Volvo XC60
- New NHTSA Website Helps Parents Choose Right Seat
- Toyota Dear Qin Sedan and Hatchback: Don’t You Wan...
- Toyota Yundong Shuangqing Concept: What’s Happenin...
- In Hot Pursuit of Cold Milk: A Look at the New Ind...
- The Continental: Nine-Speeds Are Coming, Legalizin...
- 2013 Bugatti Veyron 16.4 Grand Sport Vitesse Drive...
- Volkswagen Launches China-Only New Lavida [Beijing...
- Jaguar/Land Rover Officially Launches Engineered t...
- Commercial Break: A Quick Example Of A Good “Gen Y...
-
▼
April
(760)
No comments:
Post a Comment