Grade The Analysts: Banker Blows Away Super-Sandy

Super-Sandy rained into the sales plans of automakers and destroyed the predictions of America's best analysts. All, except one: Rod Lache, Deutsche Bank's star automotive analyst. Rank Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR SAAR Diff OEM Diff Overall 1 Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank) 6.0% 1.0% 10.0% 14.6 2.2% 2.0% 4.2% 2 Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) 4.7% 3.5% 13.0% 14.8 3.6% 6.8% 10.4% 3 Joseph Spak (RBC) 8.1% 2.4% 9.3% 15.0 5.0% 6.2% 11.2% 4 Brian Johnson (Barclays) 8.2% 1.6% 15.0% 14.9 4.3% 9.8% 14.1% 5 Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse) 6.0% 5.0% 15.0% 14.9 4.3% 11.0% 15.3% 6 Peter Nesvold (Jefferies) 8.8% 3.0% 15.0% 14.8 3.6% 11.8% 15.4% 7 Alec Gutierrez (Kelley) 8.8% 3.2% 16.0% 14.7 2.9% 13.0% 15.9% 8 Patrick Archambault (Goldman) 7.0% 2.0% 19.0% 14.8 3.6% 13.0% 16.6% 9 Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com) 7.3% 5.3% 15.0% 14.9 4.3% 12.6% 16.9% 10 Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA) 11.0% 2.7% 18.0% 15.0 5.0% 16.7% 21.7% 11 John Sousanis (Ward's) 9.7% 5.4% 19.0% 15.0 5.0% 19.1% 24.1% 12 George Magliano (IHS) NA NA NA 14.6 2.2% 300.0% 302.2% 13 Ryan Brinkman (JPMorgan) NA NA NA 14.7 2.9% 300.0% 302.9% 14 Itay Michaeli (Citigroup) NA NA NA 14.7 2.9% 300.0% 302.9% 15 Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive) NA NA NA 14.8 3.6% 300.0% 303.6% 16 Alan Baum (Baum & Associates) NA NA NA 14.8 3.6% 300.0% 303.6% Average 7.8% 3.2% 15.0% 14.80 Actual 5.0% 0.0% 10.0% 14.29 While a tad too optimistic, Lache was much closer to reality than an his exuberant colleagues, polled by Bloomberg. Lache said GM's sales would raise 6 percent (they rose 5), he figured Ford would be up 1 percent (Ford was flat), he thought Chrysler would be up 10 percent (Chrysler was.) With 14.6 million, Lache reckoned the lowest SAAR of all the analysts. The true number was 14.29 million. This is the second time Rod Lache takes the top spot this year. He already led the analysts in July. Edmunds star analyst Jessica Caldwell, winner of 4 out of 10 months so far, came in second. from The Truth About Cars http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com

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