Friday, June 1, 2012

May Sales: Great, But Not Great Enough For Spoiled Analysts

 

GM up 11 percent. Ford up 13 percent. Chrysler up 30 percent. Nissan up 21 percent. Volkswagen up 28 percent. Toyota up a whopping 87 percent. A few months ago, these numbers would have set champagne corks and fireworks flying. Today, these numbers were greeted by a communal meh and by stocks of automakers going south.

People who only read headlines may think the sky is falling. "May auto sales disappoint; demand slows," headlines Reuters.

The numbers are great, but not good enough for high expectations, caused by optimistic forecasts and exuberant analyst notes. If you don't meet sky-high expectations, you get slaughtered.

Ironically, falling gas prices are fingered to dissuade people from buying cars. Swiss bank UBS says that higher fuel prices in the first quarter prompted consumers to swap older, less fuel-efficient models to lock in fuel savings.

Also, there is fear that the pent-up demand is not what it was said to be. Students of car crises know that steep falls are usually followed by a sudden pop until the market finds its new groove. The fear is that sales in the past months were the pop, and that we are heading into the groove. Whatever the groove may be.



from The Truth About Cars http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com




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