Grade The Analysts, May 2012: Exuberance Causes Big Fail

Rank Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR SAAR Diff OEM Diff Overall 1 Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse) 13.0% 14.0% 36.0% 14.3 3.8% 9.0% 12.8% 2 Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com) 17.0% 11.0% 33.0% 14.5 5.2% 11.0% 16.2% 3 Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book) 11.0% 9.4% 40.0% 14.2 3.0% 13.6% 16.6% 4 Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) 11.0% 16.0% 42.0% 14.4 4.5% 15.0% 19.5% 5 Patrick Archambault (Goldman) 15.0% 10.0% 38.0% 14.4 4.5% 15.0% 19.5% 6 Peter Nesvold (Jefferies) 13.0% 12.0% 44.0% 14.4 4.5% 17.0% 21.5% 7 Brian Johnson (Barclays) 16.0% 15.0% 42.0% 14.4 4.5% 19.0% 23.5% 8 Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA) 18.0% 11.0% 41.0% 14.4 4.5% 20.0% 24.5% 9 John Sousanis (Ward's) 15.0% 15.0% 45.0% 14.6 6.0% 21.0% 27.0% 10 Joseph Spak (RBC) 16.0% 10.0% NA 14.4 4.5% 108.0% 112.5% 11 George Magliano (IHS Automotive) NA NA NA 14.2 3.0% 300.0% 303.0% 12 Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive) NA NA NA 14.3 3.8% 300.0% 303.8% 13 Itay Michaeli (Citigroup) NA NA NA 14.4 4.5% 300.0% 304.5% 14 Alan Baum (Baum & Associates) NA NA NA 14.4 4.5% 300.0% 304.5% Average 15.0% 12.0% 40.0% 14.4 Actual 11.0% 13.0% 30.0% 13.8 The analysts polled by Bloomberg should wear a bullet-proof vest and avoid dark alleys for a while. To a woman and a man, the analysts were too exuberant, guessing way too high for May. Despite a respectable 13 percent gain, the market came in below the expectations created by analyst predictions, which sent car stocks broadly lower yesterday. Today, the wayward soothsayers receive their just punishment. The winner of May's Grade The Analysts is Chris Ceraso of Credit Suisse. In the preceding months , Chris had ranked at the bottom of the field of contestants who had a fair chance of winning. Only the ones who deliver a prediction for the SAAR  AND the Detroit 3 can win this game. In May, Chris performed with Swiss consistency, missing the mark by nearly 13 percent. He won, because the other contestants finished much worse. In second place is Jesse Toprak of TrueCar, defending the honor of analysts who are in possession of strategically important real-time transaction data. Nevertheless, Jesse aimed too high. In place three is Alec Gutierrez of Kelley Blue Book, who had set off a round of misguided enthusiasm by predicting a week ago that the market could be up by 30 percent . from The Truth About Cars http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com

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