Cain’s Segments: Trucks Roll Over Subcompacts

The eleven vehicles most obviously classified as subcompacts accounted for 3.8% of the American automobile industry's May 2013 sales volume, down from 3.9% a year ago. Overall volume increased, but not at the rate of the overall market, and certainly not at the rate achieved by their opposite, pickup trucks. Let's have a little look at the small cars. Through the first five months of 2013, subcompacts are responsible for four out of every 100 new vehicle sales. That's down from the 4.3% achieved by the same eleven vehicles in the same period of 2012. Although it could be intelligently argued that the Hyundai Veloster (down 22% to 2826 in May) and Volkswagen Beetle (up 24% to 3718) could be listed here, as well as city cars like the Chevrolet Spark (2581 May sales), Smart Fortwo (up 16% to 818), and Scion iQ (down 41% to 526), the slightly narrower borderlines we've established for subcompacts in this post should do a better job of manifesting conventional subcompact purchases and leases. The Fiat 500, Mini Cooper, Toyota Prius C, and leftover Chevrolet Aveos are the most unconventional cars capable of throwing a wrench into the normality of the proceedings. Auto May 2013 May 2012 May % Change 5 mos. 2013 5 mos. 2012 YTD % Change Chevrolet Aveo 1 5 - 80.0% 2 53 - 96.2% Chevrolet Sonic 9523 7205 + 32.2% 37,783 35,455 + 6.6% Fiat 500 4051 4003 + 1.2% 17,562 16,702 + 5.1% Ford Fiesta 6693 6080 + 10.1% 28,801 26,737 + 7.7% Honda Fit 4667 3879 + 20.3% 20,486 19,706 + 4.0% Hyundai Accent 5578 6166 - 9.5% 24,222 30,810 - 21.4% Kia Rio 5142 4019 + 27.9% 19,491 18,728 + 4.1% Mazda 2 791 901 - 12.2% 4851 9213 - 47.3% Mini Cooper * 4033 4377 - 7.9% 16,907 18,623 - 9.2% Nissan Versa 8614 8643 - 0.3% 55,056 52,173 + 5.5% Toyota Prius C 3782 3693 + 2.4% 17,133 12,594 + 36.0% Toyota Yaris 1778 3521 - 49.5% 11,179 17,964 - 37.8% — — — — — — — Total 54,653 52,492 + 4.1% 253,473 258,758 - 2.0% On that note, consider the falling sales in BMW's Mini showrooms. Sales here include the original Cooper Hardtop as well as the Clubman, Convertible, Coupe, and Roadster. More than two-thirds of Mini's non-Countryman/non-Paceman total is made up by the one car which spawned Mini's return. Only 5527 of the Coopers sold this year have been Clubmans, Convertibles, Coupes, and Roadsters. Of these five Cooper sub-models, only the Roadster has posted year-over-year gains in 2013. By itself, the "regular" Mini Cooper's 2521 May sales equal a 5.9% drop from May 2012's output. The Fiat 500, on the other hand, has yet to post a year-over-year U.S. sales decline in 15 tries, although growth has predictably slowed. Back to the subject of conventional subcompacts, the Chevrolet Sonic's May victory stands in contrast to the Nissan Versa's usual leadership. Indeed, the Versa is 17,273 sales ahead of the Sonic through five months after a 30K+ unit victory in 2012. The Versa is not all-conquering. Don't fall into the trap of confusing sales leadership with outright market domination. 78% of America's 253,473 subcompact customers haven't registered a new Versa this year. Jointly, the Hyundai Accent and Kia Rio own 17% of the category. The very suggestion that the buyer of a well-optioned JCW Mini Cooper S would otherwise consider a Nissan Versa is comical, but we're always left with these sorts of issues when rehashing sales data. (BMW releases 3-Series sales figures as a group, which presents us with the opportunity to compare a measure of hidden M3 volume, whether we like it or not, with sales of the Lexus IS250.) Besides, it is interesting to note that, despite the price differentials, buyers turn to the Mini and Honda Fit in similar numbers, although Chevrolet did sell twice as many Sonics as BMW sold Minis in May. Granted, unlike the potential Fit buyer, a prospective Mini customer isn't also eyeing the Civic on the other side of the showroom. Regardless of the validity of comparisons, the numbers achieved by a large group of small cars certainly proves that interest in inexpensive small cars continues to pale in comparison with moderately more expensive compacts and midsize cars. Together, the Toyota Camry and Honda Accord have found 326,939 buyers in the United States this year, outselling these subcompacts by 73,466 units. The Toyota Corolla and Honda Civic have outsold these subcompacts by 8022 units. Sure, what with plunging Mazda 2 volume and disappearing Toyota Yaris sales and challenging times for the Hyundai Accent, subcompact sales haven't been healthy this year. But those same two pairs were handily outselling these subcompacts at this time last year, too. What's the point? If subcompacts aren't as profitable and don't sell as often, why bother? Automakers feel that they're hedging their bets against a possible turning of the tide, like when fast-rising fuel prices led to the Honda Civic becoming America's overall best-selling vehicle in May 2008, outselling even Ford's F-Series. More important, automakers sell subcompacts as a means of targeting first-time buyers, hoping that a future increase in wealth will inspire a Sonic owner to become a Cruze owner, who will then step into a Malibu before ending up in a CTS, or more likely, a Silverado. Independent analyst Timothy Cain is the founder and editor of GoodCarBadCar.net. His look at the important segments will be a permanent fixture at TTAC, along with a  look at the market up North.   from The Truth About Cars http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com

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