Dark Horse Best Analyst Of The Month

Each month, Bloomberg asks 15 or 16 analysts for their forecasts of the month's sales data. But how good are they really? Knowing who has a good aim could make you a lot of money at the stock exchange, for instance. This is where TTAC comes in. Each month, we tell you who hit, who missed, and who is not even in the ballpark. Analysts who only give a SAAR and nothing else are being punished in this ranking.  Will just a SAAR help you to know whether you should buy Ford or short GM? Thankfully, the number of lazy analysts diminishes each month. And here are this month's winners: November Analyst Rankings Rank Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR SAAR Diff OEM Diff Overall 1 Brian Johnson (Barclays) 5.5% 2.9% 14.0% 15.3 1.5% 5.6% 7.1% 2 Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) 5.5% 3.3% 13.0% 15.0 3.5% 6.2% 9.7% 3 Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank) 6.0% 2.0% 12.0% 15.4 0.9% 9.0% 9.9% 4 Joseph Spak (RBC) 7.7% 3.5% 16.0% 15.2 2.2% 9.2% 11.4% 5 Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse) 7.0% 3.0% 17.0% 15.1 2.8% 10.0% 12.8% 6 John Sousanis (Ward's) 7.6% 3.9% 18.0% 15.2 2.2% 10.7% 12.9% 7 Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA) 9.5% 2.7% 16.0% 15.0 3.5% 11.8% 15.3% 8 Alec Gutierrez (Kelley) 7.0% 0.5% 13.0% 14.7 5.4% 10.5% 15.9% 9 Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com) 9.0% 1.5% 18.0% 15.2 2.2% 14.5% 16.7% 10 Peter Nesvold (Jefferies) 8.6% 2.3% 18.0% 15.0 3.5% 13.3% 16.8% 11 Patrick Archambault (Goldman) 9.9% 1.2% 16.0% 15.0 3.5% 13.7% 17.2% 12 Ryan Brinkman (JPMorgan) NA NA NA 15.0 3.5% 300.0% 303.5% 13 Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive) NA NA NA 15.0 3.5% 300.0% 303.5% 14 George Magliano (IHS) NA NA NA 14.8 4.7% 300.0% 304.7% 15 Alan Baum (Baum & Associates) NA NA NA 14.7 5.4% 300.0% 305.4% Average 7.6% 2.4% 16.0% 15.00 Actual 3.0% 6.0% 14.0% 15.54 On average, the 15 analysts polled by Bloomberg were not optimistic enough on the market, were way to exuberant about GM, did not give enough credit to Ford, and called Chrysler alright. Rock star Jesse Toprak had a bad month and licks his wounds in rank 9. Golden Girl Jessica Caldwell came close, but was denied first place by dark horse Brian Johnson of Barclays. In prior months, Johnson was  known for rather middling performance. Was is mere luck? We will know next month, when the analyst of the year will get the TTAC '12, a.k.a.  The Top Anlalyst Crown 2012. from The Truth About Cars http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com

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