September Up 10 Percent, Says TrueCar. Kelley Says A Little Less

Sales Projection For September 2012 TrueCar Kelley Manufacturer Sept'12 YoY Sept'12 YoY Chrysler 137,612 8.1% 134,520 5.6% Ford 177,066 1.3% 177,840 1.6% GM 212,284 2.5% 215,460 4.0% Honda 113,439 26.7% 109,440 22.2% Hyundai/Kia 102,283 16.7% 93,480 6.6% Nissan 92,349 -0.7% 92,340 -0.7% Toyota 161,201 32.7% 163,020 34.2% Volkswagen 48,304 31.4% 47,880 29.7% Industry 1,163,000 10.5% 1,140,000 8.2% The month is coming to an end. A sure indicator: The forecasters are submitting their guesses. Again, September seems to be up solidly. More. Or less.  TrueCar expects that 1,163,000 units will change hands in September, up 10.5 percent from September 2011 and down 9.5 percent from a very hot August 2012. The Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) is expected to be 14.6 million, up from 13.1 million in September 2011 and up slightly from 14.5 million in August 2012. Kelley is a bit more cautious, sees a SAAR at 14.3 million, and sales up 8 percent. Market Share  Projection For September 2012 TrueCar Kelley Manufacturer Sept'12 Sept'11 Sept'12 Sept'11 Chrysler 11.80% 12.1% 11.80% 12.1% Ford 15.20% 16.6% 15.60% 16.6% GM 18.30% 19.7% 18.90% 19.7% Honda 9.80% 8.5% 9.60% 8.5% Hyundai/Kia 8.80% 8.3% 8.20% 8.3% Nissan 7.90% 8.8% 8.10% 8.8% Toyota 13.90% 11.5% 14.30% 11.5% Volkswagen 4.20% 3.5% 4.20% 3.5% Detroit is projected to lose market share, Tokyo, Seoul, and Wolfsburg are said to win, Yokohama is projected to shed some more. Given the hearty sales, incentive spending is expected to be restraint at $2,468 on the average hood, down  6.7 percent from September 2011, and down 1.2 percent from August 2012. Chrysler is expected to be most generous with $3,256 for each car on average, followed by GM and Nissan. from The Truth About Cars http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com

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