Everybody Now: August Hot, Detroit Not Cool

Predictions for August new car sales scale higher and higher as we approach release day this coming week.   Economists polled by Thomson Reuters expect sales to rise as high as 20 percent from a year ago.  On average, the polled experts expect a Seasonally Adjusted Average Rate (SAAR) of 14.2 million vehicles in August, a forecast that is in line with expectations by TrueCar and Kelley. The augurs of Reuters also agree with Kelley and TrueCar that Detroit's numbers could be better. Says Reuters: "Gains by the U.S. automakers will be more muted, with GM expected up 2 to 6 percent. Ford sales are expected to increase 7 to 10 percent, while Chrysler's are forecast to rise 8 to 12 percent. The market share of all three U.S. automakers is expected to fall from August 2011, but increase from July. The opinions of analysts polled  by Bloomberg (see table) also average out to a SAAR of 14.2 million, their guesses on GM performance range from +0.7 percent  by Peter Nesvold of Jefferies to 6.4 percent by a bullish Jessica Caldwell. Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank) 1.0% 3.4% 16.0% 14.0 Peter Nesvold (Jefferies) 0.7% 9.7% 8.9% 14.3 Patrick Archambault (Goldman) 1.2% 7.8% 4.0% 13.9 Joseph Spak (RBC) 2.4% 8.0% 9.0% 14.3 Brian Johnson (Barclays) 5.5% 7.0% 8.2% 14.2 Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse) 3.9% 8.7% 6.1% 14.3 Ryan Brinkman (JPMorgan) NA NA NA 14.0 Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley) NA NA NA 14.2 John Sousanis (Ward's) 1.6% 11.0% 16.0% 14.4 George Magliano (IHS) NA NA NA 14.1 Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive) NA NA NA 14.5 Alan Baum (Baum & Associates) NA NA NA 14.3 Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) 6.4% 9.8% 12.0% 14.5 Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com) 3.9% 9.5% 9.6% 14.2 Alec Gutierrez (Kelley) 3.4% 9.6% 9.6% 14.4 Average 3.0% 8.5% 9.9% 14.2 from The Truth About Cars http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com

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