Europe, Half Year Review: Bad News For French, Italians, Ford, And GM

Europe's new car market continues on its downward spiral with sales down 2.8 percent in June. Half year sales are down 6.8 percent across the EU, data released today by the European Automobiles Manufacturers' Association ACEA show today. Some countries and automakers do much better, some much worse. June June % Chg Jan – Jun Jan – Jun % Chg '12 '11 12/11 '12 '11 12/11 AUSTRIA 33,068 32,018 +3.3 186,958 187,593 -0.3 BELGIUM 47,647 48,353 -1.5 285,116 326,445 -12.7 BULGARIA 2,135 1,823 +17.1 9,770 9,166 +6.6 CYPRUS 978 1,248 -21.6 6,426 8,098 -20.6 CZECH REPUBLIC 18,140 16,156 +12.3 94,233 88,284 +6.7 DENMARK 14,720 17,030 -13.6 84,273 87,806 -4.0 ESTONIA 1,642 1,333 +23.2 8,923 7,503 +18.9 FINLAND 7,718 11,235 -31.3 66,926 71,358 -6.2 FRANCE 208,909 210,172 -0.6 1,048,982 1,225,084 -14.4 GERMANY 296,722 288,382 +2.9 1,634,401 1,622,579 +0.7 GREECE 5,527 9,741 -43.3 32,429 55,276 -41.3 HUNGARY 4,952 4,205 +17.8 27,781 23,168 +19.9 IRELAND 6,370 11,007 -42.1 66,657 77,079 -13.5 ITALY 128,388 169,862 -24.4 814,179 1,014,258 -19.7 LATVIA 1,050 912 +15.1 5,462 5,082 +7.5 LITHUANIA 1,048 1,344 -22.0 6,202 6,623 -6.4 LUXEMBURG 4,939 4,256 +16.0 28,656 28,596 +0.2 NETHERLANDS 76,813 50,499 +52.1 332,490 328,346 +1.3 POLAND 23,393 24,734 -5.4 149,192 138,677 +7.6 PORTUGAL 10,803 17,150 -37.0 53,404 91,859 -41.9 ROMANIA 7,326 8,606 -14.9 33,343 31,758 +5.0 SLOVAKIA 5,976 6,298 -5.1 34,316 34,183 +0.4 SLOVENIA 4,980 5,769 -13.7 28,327 32,942 -14.0 SPAIN 73,258 83,385 -12.1 406,070 442,212 -8.2 SWEDEN 25,562 27,485 -7.0 142,633 157,042 -9.2 UNITED KINGDOM 189,514 183,125 +3.5 1,057,680 1,029,638 +2.7 EU 1,201,578 1,236,128 -2.8 6,644,829 7,130,655 -6.8 The fall would have been bigger, would Europe's biggest car markets, Germany and the U.K., not have shown some resilience. Sales for the half year are up 2.7 percent in the U.K. and 0.7 percent in Germany. Matters look much worse in the remaining volume markets. France is down 14.4 percent in the first half year, Italy gave up 19.7 percent of its sales, Spain 8.2. Much talked about Greece, down a whopping 41.3 percent in the first six months, does not move the pan-European needle much. Greeks bought 5,527 cars in June and has dwindled to the market size of Luxembourg. The often ignored central European countries show strength. June January – June     %Share   %Share Units Units % Chg     %Share   %Share Units Units % Chg '12 '11 '12 '11 12/11 '12 '11 '12 '11 12/11 ALL BRANDS** 1,201,578 1,236,128 -2.8 6,644,829 7,130,655 -6.8 VW Group 23.8 22.5 286,109 278,269 +2.8 23.9 22.6 1,590,933 1,614,423 -1.5 VOLKSWAGEN 12.3 11.6 148,074 143,187 +3.4 12.6 12.0 838,132 856,556 -2.2 AUDI 5.6 5.0 66,698 62,015 +7.6 5.4 4.9 362,038 346,534 +4.5 SEAT 2.0 2.3 24,217 28,314 -14.5 2.0 2.3 133,971 160,722 -16.6 SKODA 3.9 3.6 46,885 44,556 +5.2 3.8 3.5 255,437 249,573 +2.3 Others (1) 0.0 0.0 235 197 +19.3 0.0 0.0 1,355 1,038 +30.5 PSA Group 12.3 13.1 148,172 162,166 -8.6 12.2 13.2 808,660 938,817 -13.9 PEUGEOT 6.5 7.2 78,478 88,844 -11.7 6.5 7.2 432,426 510,201 -15.2 CITROEN 5.8 5.9 69,694 73,322 -4.9 5.7 6.0 376,234 428,616 -12.2 RENAULT Grp 9.4 9.5 112,627 117,083 -3.8 8.6 9.7 570,959 688,681 -17.1 RENAULT 7.4 7.7 88,398 94,601 -6.6 6.8 7.9 450,881 561,093 -19.6 DACIA 2.0 1.8 24,229 22,482 +7.8 1.8 1.8 120,078 127,588 -5.9 GM Group 8.9 9.5 107,160 117,558 -8.8 8.4 8.8 560,934 629,176 -10.8 OPEL/VAUXHALL 7.3 8.1 88,252 100,498 -12.2 6.9 7.6 457,630 538,446 -15.0 CHEVROLET 1.6 1.4 18,893 17,019 +11.0 1.6 1.3 103,126 90,475 +14.0 GM (US) 0.0 0.0 15 41 -63.4 0.0 0.0 178 255 -30.2 FORD 6.8 8.1 82,061 100,708 -18.5 7.8 8.1 517,094 576,879 -10.4 FIAT Group 6.4 7.6 77,261 94,173 -18.0 6.7 7.5 445,229 536,931 -17.1 FIAT 4.7 5.6 56,553 69,580 -18.7 4.8 5.5 321,760 391,923 -17.9 LANCIA/CHRYSLER 0.8 0.8 9,456 9,538 -0.9 0.8 0.8 55,347 55,093 +0.5 ALFA ROMEO 0.7 1.0 8,594 12,372 -30.5 0.8 1.1 52,203 75,901 -31.2 JEEP 0.2 0.2 2,298 2,123 +8.2 0.2 0.1 13,651 10,046 +35.9 Others (2) 0.0 0.0 360 560 -35.7 0.0 0.1 2,268 3,968 -42.8 BMW Group 6.6 6.5 79,441 79,827 -0.5 6.1 5.7 404,771 408,768 -1.0 BMW 5.2 5.1 61,997 62,537 -0.9 4.9 4.6 323,511 326,150 -0.8 MINI 1.5 1.4 17,444 17,290 +0.9 1.2 1.2 81,260 82,618 -1.6 DAIMLER 5.2 5.3 62,010 65,767 -5.7 5.1 4.7 336,836 337,489 -0.2 MERCEDES 4.6 4.7 55,492 58,186 -4.6 4.5 4.1 298,072 294,795 +1.1 SMART 0.5 0.6 6,518 7,581 -14.0 0.6 0.6 38,764 42,694 -9.2 TOYOTA Group 3.9 3.1 46,435 38,766 +19.8 4.2 4.0 276,996 282,106 -1.8 TOYOTA 3.7 3.0 44,006 37,158 +18.4 3.9 3.8 262,306 269,556 -2.7 LEXUS 0.2 0.1 2,429 1,608 +51.1 0.2 0.2 14,690 12,550 +17.1 NISSAN 3.6 3.2 42,932 39,475 +8.8 3.5 3.4 230,992 240,358 -3.9 HYUNDAI 3.5 2.8 42,653 34,839 +22.4 3.3 2.8 222,573 199,419 +11.6 KIA 2.7 2.1 32,367 26,247 +23.3 2.5 1.9 168,938 135,478 +24.7 VOLVO 1.7 1.8 20,961 22,689 -7.6 1.8 1.8 116,364 128,100 -9.2 SUZUKI 1.1 1.1 13,734 13,870 -1.0 1.2 1.3 80,968 91,695 -11.7 HONDA 1.1 0.9 13,386 10,864 +23.2 1.0 1.1 68,696 77,252 -11.1 MAZDA 1.0 1.0 11,604 12,594 -7.9 1.0 1.0 65,216 74,617 -12.6 JLR 0.9 0.6 10,469 7,211 +45.2 1.0 0.7 64,518 47,922 +34.6 LAND ROVER 0.7 0.4 8,322 5,179 +60.7 0.8 0.5 52,161 36,632 +42.4 JAGUAR 0.2 0.2 2,147 2,032 +5.7 0.2 0.2 12,357 11,290 +9.5 MITSUBISHI 0.4 0.7 5,117 8,200 -37.6 0.6 0.8 38,965 57,662 -32.4 Not a healthy environmentl for manufacturers that are overweight in the parts of Europe where automotive pestilence is rampant. If you are a French or Italian maker, you have problems. Renault is down 17.1 percent for the half year, rival PSA lost 13.9 percent, Italian Fiat Group lost 17.1 percent. The German carmakers survived the first half year relatively unscathed. Export-heavy as they are, we don't have to worry about them. If you hold stock in Ford or GM, then you have reason to be worried. Being at home in healthier regions of Europe did not help them much. Ford's sales are down 10.4 percent in the first half year, GM lost 10.8 percent. Opel sales are down 15 percent, Chevrolet is up 14 percent.  Matters shape up more and more for a possible tactical retreat from Opel and a consolidation of gains at Chevrolet. A well-managed European automaker will survive this, a badly managed may not. Now is the time where cash is king. If you sit on debt, if you made losses during good times, you will have a hard time surviving the bad.  If you sit on a pile of cash, and if you can translate the low Euro into export gains, you will come out of this stronger than ever. Even among the badly mauled, some are hardier than others. In a research note, Moran Stanley predicts that Renault's 2012 profits will exceed last year's even under the worst case scenario. One of the reasons is, says the note, that Renault "is silently transforming itself into a low-cost OEM." Renault's Dacia sales are growing, and the company found ways to make low cost cars very profitable, something other makers grapple with. Also, Renault owns nearly half of Nissan, and Nissan looks like pure gold at the moment. Data are available for download here as PDF and here as Excel sheet. from The Truth About Cars http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com

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