Grade The Analysts: Caldwell Wins Race Against 15.1 Million

Rank Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR SAAR Diff OEM Diff Overall 1 Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) -5.0% 18.0% 32.0% 14.4 4.64% 18.15% 22.79% 2 Brian Johnson (Barclays Capital) -3.6% 7.1% 32.0% 14.3 5.30% 20.34% 25.64% 3 Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com) -6.1% 14.0% 27.0% 14.3 5.30% 20.94% 26.24% 4 Patrick Archambault (Goldman Sachs) -2.6% 11.0% 26.0% 14.3 5.30% 21.44% 26.74% 5 Peter Nesvold (Jefferies) -5.9% 13.0% 27.0% 14.2 5.96% 21.74% 27.70% 6 Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA) -3.9% 5.6% 25.0% 14.5 3.97% 29.14% 33.12% 7 Joseph Spak (RBC) -5.2% 8.0% 24.0% 14.1 6.62% 29.04% 35.67% 8 Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank) -4.0% 8.7% 22.0% 14.1 6.62% 29.14% 35.77% 9 Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book) -5.8% 5.6% 25.0% 13.8 8.61% 31.04% 39.65% 10 Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse) -5.6% 3.4% 22.0% 14.1 6.62% 36.04% 42.67% 11 Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley) NA  NA   NA 14.3 5.30% 300.00% 305.30% 12 Matthew Stover (Guggenheim)  NA  NA   NA 14.3 5.30% 300.00% 305.30% 13 Himanshu Patel (JPMorgan)  NA  NA   NA 14.2 5.96% 300.00% 305.96% 14 Itay Michaeli (Citigroup) NA  NA   NA 14.2 5.96% 300.00% 305.96% 15 Alan Baum (Baum & Associates)  NA  NA   NA 14.0 7.28% 300.00% 307.28% 16 Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive) NA  NA   NA 14.0 7.28% 300.00% 307.28% 17 George Magliano (IHS Automotive) NA  NA   NA 13.8 8.61% 300.00% 308.61% Average -4.8% 9.4% 26.0% 14.2 Actual 1.1% 14.3% 40.4% 15.1   The strong February was good news for the car industry, bad news for the analysts. Even the most optimistic prognosis could not withstand the mad February rush to buying cars. February ended with a Seasonally Adjusted Average Rate (SAAR) of 15.1 million, something the world had not seen since carmageddon. Even the most optimistic analyst (and the winner of the February round of Grade The Analysts) would predict only 14.4 million. GM had a big minus sign in front of every estimation. It came in with a 1 percent gain. Chrysler sales were estimated to grow "only" 26 percent. They grew 40.4 percent. Even with Ford, the augurs were too cautious. As any racer will tell you: In a race where everybody is confused, the least confused wins. Despite not calling anything right, Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds wins by coming slightly closer to the truth than anyone else. Nevertheless: 22.79% deviation, that is the worst win in Grade The Analyst history. While we are at it, we welcome three new analysts, Emmanual Rosner, Chris Ceraso, And Matthew Stover. We are pleased that two out of three FNGs decided to go whole hog and to provide estimates not just for the SAAR, but for all Detroit companies. It's the only way to win this game. In racing, you don't get points for not racing either. from The Truth About Cars http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com

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