Edmunds: Spring For U.S. Car Sales, Winter For GM

Edmunds has handed in its predictions for February sales. Its bottom line is similar to the forecast made by Kelley Blue Book a few days ago: More than a million cars sold, GM the big loser of the month. Edmunds has better news for Ford. And much better news for Chrysler, if that is at all possible. Sales Volume 12-Feb 11-Feb YOY YOY adj GM 196,742 207,030 -5.0% -8.8% Ford 184,812 156,238 18.3% 13.6% Toyota 149,780 141,846 5.6% 1.4% Chrysler 125,990 95,102 32.5% 27.2% Honda 103,183 98,059 5.2% 1.0% Nissan 97,971 92,370 6.1% 1.8% Industry 1,095,059 993,009 10.3% 5.9% Looking at a few more days of data than Kelley, Edmunds predicts that somewhere around 1,095,059 new cars will be sold in February, for a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 14.4 million units. This would be a 5.9 percent increase over February 2011. Edmunds.com figures that retail SAAR will come in at 11.3 million vehicles in February, with fleet transactions accounting for 21 percent of total sales. Edmunds Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell sees a veritable spring for U.S. auto sales: "There's a rising tide of excellent buying conditions right now that is really driving auto sales momentum. Between surprisingly strong sales over Presidents Day weekend, optimistic economic news, and unseasonably mild weather conditions across the country, things seem to be breaking the right way for both car buyers and dealers." Edmunds agrees with Kelley that GM will get it on the chin, and predicts even more hurt: Unadjusted for sales days, Edmunds foresees a 5 percent decrease in GM sales. Ford (+18%) and Chrysler (+32.5%) are doing much better on the Edmunds spreadsheet than predicted by Kelley. Market Share 12-Feb 11-Feb YOY GM 18.0% 20.8% -2.9% Ford 16.9% 15.7% 1.1% Toyota 13.7% 14.3% -0.6% Chrysler 11.5% 9.6% 1.9% Honda 9.4% 9.9% -0.5% Nissan 8.9% 9.3% -0.4% If Edmunds' predictions pan out, then GM will suffer a huge hit to their year-over-year market share, dropping almost three percentage points from February of last year. According to Edmunds, "GM's year-over-year decline is a direct result of its aggressive incentives push that pumped up sales in early 2011." Pretty much all of that lost market share will be snapped-up by the cross-town rivals. Edmunds has Ford gaining 1.1 percent in share, and Chrysler a very respectable 1.9 percent. from The Truth About Cars http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com

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