Friday, April 4, 2014

Cain’s Segments: Q1 2014 Full-Size Truck Sales

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Year-over-year comparisons are a completely valid comparison tool, indeed a vital one, when analyzing the sales volume reported by automobile manufacturers. The auto industry is seasonal; cyclical at the best of times. The number of vehicles sold in say, January, bears little resemblance to the number of vehicles sold in May.

Studying the market share changes from one month to the next, rather than in a year-over-year fashion, is also a perfectly useful yardstick, even if certain automakers do uniquely prioritize certain seasons. And so we consider America's March 2014 pickup truck sales figures, in which GM's two full-size trucks suffered a market share decline in the full-size truck category from 32.1% in March 2013 to 31.9% in March 2014.

Yet much worse was the drop from February's 35% (which itself was down from 39.1% in the previous February) to last month's 31.9%. The market share owned by the Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra in January 2014 was, at 33.3%, also superior to March's tally, and also way down from the previous January's 38.9%.

News that the Ram P/U – formerly known as the Dodge Ram – outsold the Silverado in March was greeted both by many a headline and a harsh rebuke from General Motors. Regardless of how you view the General Motors truck partnership, as a solitary unit with two faces or as two separate entities, GM's twins outsold the Ram by 16,578 units in March.

Ram sales shot up 26% to 42,532 units, equal to 22.9% of the full-size truck category. Those gains undoubtedly ate into GM's total, but the Ram and Toyota Tundra also worked together to steal some of Ford's market share, as well.

Ford's slower growth is more understandable and more acceptable given the state of their current truck. It's about to be replaced. Meanwhile, Ford topped 70,000 F-Series sales for the fourth time in the last eleven months, no mean feat.

With 11,589 sales, Toyota topped the 10K mark for the fourth time in the last eight months. Toyota had done so only twice in the previous 31 months. At the current pace, Toyota could sell more than 130,000 Tundras in America for the first time since 2008. In fact, Toyota hadn't sold this many Tundras in a single month since August of that year. Clearly Tundra volume remains low in comparison to Detroit's big trucks, but that doesn't make it a rarely seen vehicle. The Tundra ranked 41st among all new vehicle nameplates in Q1, up from 48th in the Q1 of 2013.

Purely on volume terms, Toyota's 25% increase was moderate. 2319 more Tundras were sold in March 2014 than in March 2013; Chevy's 7% March improvement equalled 2686 extra sales. 2014 marked the fifth consecutive year in which Silverado volume improved in the month of March. The problem for General Motors, from an outsider's perspective, isn't the Ram's ability to grab the number two spot, nor is it the fact that Silverado growth was well below the segment's average. GM points to transaction prices – and Chrysler's incentives – as a sign of health, and one wouldn't dare argue that making more money off more trucks is a bad thing.

Yet a strategy that consistently requires the Silverado and Sierra to eat an increasingly smaller portion of an increasingly larger pie is a scheme that's not terribly worthy of applause in one of the most hotly-contested, highest-volume vehicle categories in the industry.

Truck
March
2014
March
2013
%
Change
3 mos.
2014
3 mos.
2013
%
Change
Ford F-Series
70,940 67,513 + 5.1% 173,358 168,843 + 5.4%
Ram P/U
42,532 33,831 + 25.7% 96,906 77,594 + 24.9%
Chevrolet Silverado
42,247 39,561 + 6.8% 107,757 116,649 - 7.6%
GMC Sierra
16,863 13,817 + 22.0% 42,213 40,796 + 3.5%
Toyota Tundra
11,589 9270 + 25.0% 27,402 23,580 + 16.2%
Nissan Titan
1314 2084 - 36.9% 3318 5112 - 35.1%
Total
185,485
166,076 + 11.7% 450,954 432,574 + 4.2%

 

Truck
March
2014
Share
March
2013
Share
3 mos.
2014
Share
3 mos.
2013
Share
Ford F-Series
38.2% 40.7% 38.4% 39.0%
Chevrolet Silverado/GMC Sierra
31.9% 32.1% 33.3% 36.4%
Ram P/U
22.9% 20.4% 21.5% 17.9%
Toyota Tundra
6.2% 5.6% 6.1% 5.5%
Nissan Titan
0.7% 1.3% 0.7% 1.2%
Full-Size Share Of
Total Pickup Truck Market
89.8% 86.1% 88.8% 86.8%
Full-Size Pickup Share
Of Total Industry
12.1% 11.4% 12.0% 11.7%


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